Which is one of the only trustworthy polls because it conducts it based on likely voters, and not just registered voters. Registered being a bad measurement. Case in point, my whole family is registered but I was the only one to vote in the primaries out of all six of them).
He found that, based on historical data, it is impossible for Obama to win the election. That’s because his poll numbers are hovering around 48% with the Republican challengers in the lower 40s or within margin of error of tying/winning (although, we still have a long way to go). In 80% of previous Presidential elections, the undecided voter goes with the challenger, not the incumbent.
Very interesting data. And of course, it is very likely that Obama will not get the same high amount of turnout amongst blacks or young voters that he did last time, no matter what he does. Simply because it is no longer a “historic, first black President” election.
Example, a recent article found that even among registered Democrats, most of them had to be practically bribed to get interested in politics or to even talk about Obama, and in most cases they didn’t really care.
They’d answer a question or to but then they’re off to do something else. In one case a lady who voted for Obama said maybe she would, but she is too busy trying to find a job. Another said they put 100% effort into the 2010 election and saw the Dems lose big, and that soured them on even caring about politics anymore.
But the real stinger was the fact that the majority said they were “unsure” if they would vote Obama. These being Obama voters last time around and registered Democrats. Like Dick Morris said, that’s like asking your wife if she’ll still be married next year. And she says “Ummm, maybe”. NOT a net positive by any stretch of the imagination!